Sunday, April 24, 2011

Nearing the End

Ok, we are getting close to the end of Survivor. I know there are still 11 in play for the million dollars, but I feel only 4 people that could actually walk away with the grand prize. Who they are, and why I think that way is what this post is for...

1. Rob - the most obvious choice to win, which is why he probably won't win, but he is the frontrunner. He has Ometepe (yes, they are Murlonio, but there is a definite tribal division) wrapped around his finger, is tough in challenges (obviously, he won the last one somewhat easily), and everyone votes for who he says. Yet, there is something he does that makes it seem to his people that he isn't their dictator. His most impressive performance yet in this game, and why he is my favorite male survivor of all time.

2. Grant - is anyone else playing the social game towards the non-Ometepe players better than him? He is quietly securing votes and doing extremely well at challenges. I honestly feel that if it's a physical challenge that doesn't involve puzzles, he has nobody to even challenge him. He could put on a Colby-like run, but he can't falter because I think he's the first Ometepe player gone if he doesn't win. Rob knows how dangerous Grant is, and probably will get rid of him "Matt style" in a flash if he can.

3. Matt - yes I know he is on Redemption Island...again...but he can't lose! If (and it's a BIG "if") he makes it through from Redemption Island and can secure immunity, he has a lot of respect from the people that will make up the jury in the end. Rob's hidden immunity idol (and potential lack of immunity) will be his only block to winning the million. He should be able to convince SOMEONE that Rob has the sure million and they will want to blindside him if he doesn't know it's coming...

4. Andrea - the only girl on my list, but the only one of the 3 Ometepe girls that has the smarts to do something to further herself in the minds of the jury. We know that the jury will be looking for a reason to NOT vote for Rob, and she could give a compelling argument, if she makes a good move or two to get rid of Rob and Grant. I think people will respect her game a lot more if she gets rid of one of those two...

Ashley, Natalie, Philip - none of these three has a shot at winning the money. I think at least 1 of them will make the final 3, just because of the fact they don't have a shot at winning the money. Natalie has the best shot at winning ANY votes, because she won immunity once, but none of them are players, and will get 0 votes.

Mike, Julie, Steve, Ralph - they won't make it far. The Ometepe bond is way too strong, and Matt won't let them beat him in a Redemption Island duel. No shot for them, they aren't making the right moves to get rid of Rob/Grant, and will be gone before you know it.

If I was not Rob, I would spearhead the QUIETEST blindside ever. You HAVE to get rid of him to win this season. I see no way you can beat him in the final vote unless you are Grant. That's why those two are 1-2 in the possibility of winning it all...


  1. It's all too true.

    I hope Rob wins though.

    I wouldn't be TOO upset if Grant wins.

    But, I would be sincerely angry if Andrea wins.


  2. I like your rundown. Very insightful.. I want Rob to win because he's played such a stellar fact, I'd be bummed if or should I say when he's voted off...It's been so interesting (some say boring) watching a game played text book perfect.....What do you think of his social game? Shouldn't he be trying a little harder to be on better terms with the other team? Or does it matter? I'm not sure. I just hope this isn't another bitter jury who refuses to vote for the person who actually deserves to win!!

  3. I think he's playing a great social game actually. He has the other Ometepe teammates being so cocky and he just is going right along with it. I think his strategy supercedes any social game necessary, especially because the only person having anything resembling a social game is Grant. I think Ralph and Steve are the only ones that really don't like Rob, but I know that Rob definitely has David's vote, hands down.